A United Ireland by 2016?

by Dr. Sunil (SCI) Nov 2003

With the benefit of Nicholas Whyte's brilliant Northern Ireland elections site:

we can work with a bit more accurate data than six years ago (I did my own research into it, without knowing the 'persuasion' of a lot of Independents).

1973 Local Election (STV):
13.4% SDLP, 3.0% Republican Clubs, 1.5% Unity, 0.5% Nationalist, 0.4% Republican Labour, 0.2% Republican, 0.1% Official Republican, 0.02% Ind Nat.

Total Nationalist: 19.12%

1973 Assembly Election (STV):
22.1% SDLP, 1.8% Republican Clubs, 0.9% Nationalist, 0.3% Ind Nat, 0.2% Rep Labour

Total Nationalist: 25.3%

Feb 1974 General Election:
22.4% SDLP, 2.4% Unity, 2.3% Bernadette McAliskey (Ind Socialist in mid Ulster, but I think we can safely call her pro-Nationalist), 2.1% Republican Clubs, 0.8% Albert Price (Ind, but unofficial Sinn Fein, W Belfast):

Total Nationalist: 30.0%

Oct 1974 General Election:
22.4%, 4.7% Frank McGuire (Ind Nat in Fermanagh/S Tyrone), 3.1% Republican Clubs.

Total Nationalist: 30.2%

1975 Assembly Election (STV):
23.7% SDLP, 2.2% Rep Clubs

Total Nationalist: 25.9%

1977 Local Elections (STV):
20.6% SDLP, 2.6% Rep Clubs, 1.0% Unity, 0.5% Nat, 0.04% Ind Nat

Total Nationalist: 24.74%

1979 General Election
18.2% SDLP, 3.3% Irish Independence Party, 3.2% Frank McGuire, 1.7% Republican Clubs, 1.6% Austin Currie (Ind SDLP).

Total Nationalist: 28.0%

1979 Euro Election (STV) - No Info

1981 Local Elections (STV):
17.5% SDLP, 3.9% Irish Independence, 1.8% Workers Party-Republican Clubs, 0.5% IRSP, 0.1% Ind Rep, 0.04% Nat, 0.01% Ind SDLP.

Total Nationalist: 23.85%

1982 Assembly Election (STV):
18.8% SDLP, 10.1% Sinn Fein, 0.2% Ind SDLP.

Total Nationalist: 29.1%

1983 General Election:
17.9% SDLP, 13.4% Sinn Fein, 1.3% Gerry Fitt (Ind Soc - though surely many Nationalist in W Belfast voted for him!). [I have excluded Workers Party from hereon, since they now ran as the Workers Party w/out the RC tag]

Total Nationalist: 32.6%

1984 Euro Election (STV): No Info

1985 Local Elections (STV):
17.8% SDLP, 11.8% SF, 1.2% Irish Independence, 0.04% IRSP, 0.03% Ind Rep, 1.2% Nat

Total Nationalist: 32.07%

1987 General Election:
21.1% SDLP, 11.4% SF

Total Nationalist: 32.5%

1989 Local Elections (STV):
21.0% SDLP, 11.2% SF, 0.1% Nat

Total Nationalist 32.3%

1989 Euro Election - no info

1992 General Election:
23.5% SDLP, 10.0% SF

Total Nationalist: 33.5%

1993 Local Elections (STV):
22% SDLP, 12% SF (note: excluding Ind Nats McPhillips (Fermanagh), and McDonnell and McMullan (Moyle).

Total Natioanlist 34%

1994 Euro Election (STV):
28.9% SDLP, 9.9% SF (3 candidates).

Total Nationalist: 38.8%

1996 Forum Elections (STV/List):
21.36% SDLP, 15.47% SF, 0.12% Ind McMullan

Total Nationalist: 36.95%

1997 General Election:
24.1% SDLP, 16.1% SF

Total Nationalist: 40.2%

1997 Local Elections (STV):
21% SDLP, 17% SF, 0.39% Ind Nat, 0.30% Community Candidates

Total Nationalist: 38.69%

1998 Assembly Election (STV):
21.99% SDLP, 17.65% SF, 0.07% Ind Nat.

Total Nationalist: 39.71%

1999 Euro Election (STV):
28.1% SDLP, 17.3% SF

Total Nationalist: 45.4%

2001 General Election:
21.0% SDLP, 21.7% SF

Total Nationalist: 42.7%

2001 Local Elections (STV):
19.41% SDLP, 20.66% SF


Trendline in MS Excel of above data (taking average in multi-election years (eg. 1974)):

y = 0.6083x - 1175.7 (unfortunately, R^2 is only 0.83, so not a good fit!)

But we can still project into future:

2003 42.72%
2004 43.33%
2005 43.94%
2009 46.37%
2013 48.81%
2016 50.63%


"Well, Mr. McGuiness!!!!"

regards,

Sunil

line
Return to History/Politics index - Home